May 12, 2008
The Privateer

For the first time in a decade, the top leaders of Japan and China have met for a full scale summit. It began on May 6, when China’s President Hu Jintao arrived in Japan for a five-day full-scale state visit. Upon his arrival in Japan, China’s President Hu named the summit as: “The Warm Spring Summit”.

The Early Diplomatic Results:

Chinese President Hu Jintao held opening talks with the Japanese PM, Yasuo Fukuda on May 6. The two leaders agreed they would hold annual summits to strengthen ties between the two countries. This is without precedent. Since WW II, neither Japan nor China has engaged in annual international summits at the Heads of State level with any other nation. Now, China and Japan have closer bilateral relations with each other than they do with any other nation. In regard to geo-politics, both countries are signalling that their relations with each other are now closer than their respective relations with, for example, the US. China and Japan signed an historic deal agreeing on a “new starting point” in relations after the first day of summit talks in Tokyo. This tilts Japan even further away from the US. It also signals that as Japan’s economic, diplomatic and political relations with China deepen further, Japan will progressively pull away from the present US embrace.

What is also totally without a precedent is the announcement that Japan’s Emperor Akihito, who makes few public appearances, is scheduled to see Hu three times during his stay. Previously Emperor Akihito has met other Heads of State visiting Japan either once or not at all, but never more than once.

Symbolic Diplomatic Exceptions - And Exclusions:

No American President, on one of his occasional visits to Japan, has ever been met by Japan’s Emperor more than once. On a repeat visit, he has often not had a second meeting. China’s President Hu gets three meetings with the Emperor of Japan. No Japanese or for that matter Chinese will fail to see the historic symbolic importance of this for both nations. In effect, in seeing China’s President Hu three
times during his five-day official visit to Japan, Emperor Akihito has elevated President Hu to an equal.

Asian Dominoes Falling Forward:

No leader of any Asian nation will fail to see the true geo-political importance of this summit between Japan and China. The diplomatic rush to make new arrangements with Japan and China is already on. This can be seen in Indonesia’s announcement that it is considering leaving OPEC! There will be much more of this. The rest of Southeast Asia knows that were Japan and China now to act in parallel or in any joint action, few if any of these nations would have the economic, diplomatic or political power to withstand the pressures. Taiwan is already on the move, offering closer ties with China. North Korea has again refused further talks with the US - but made it clear that it will still talk to China.

The Formation Of An Asian Centre Of Gravity:

Over the time ahead, the huge combined geo-economic and geo-financial pull of China and Japan will act to attract more and more Asian nations politically closer to this new Asian centre of gravity. As that happens, these nations are being pulled away from the US. Economically, there is nothing the US can do about this as its economy swings into economic recession. The US is no longer an attractive market. “We both believe relations between China and Japan are at a new starting point,” President Hu said. That “new starting point” is also the end point for the future US strategic presence all across Asia.