September 23, 2004
By Ken Kaye
Sun-Sentinel

Hurricane Jeanne's forecast track has taken a dramatic shift to the west and south, putting this region at considerable risk of a direct hit by Sunday morning, and possibly by a major Category 3 system with winds greater than 110 mph.

Under the latest forecast, the storm's landfall would be near Stuart or Fort Pierce, the same area that was hammered by Hurricane Frances on Sept. 5.

But, because Jeanne is meandering in the western Atlantic, its future path remains uncertain and it could aim farther north - or south, toward West Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale or even Miami.

Indeed, the trend has been to the south, as the last few advisories from the National Hurricane Center have seen the projected landfall move from the Carolinas, to the Daytona Beach area to the Treasure Coast.

"It's just something we all need to pay attention to," said Dan Brown, hurricane center meteorologist. "Make sure all your hurricane supplies have been replenished."

At 11 p.m., Jeanne was 390 miles east of Great Abaco Island in the Bahamas with sustained winds of 105 mph. It was drifting west at 6 mph.

Tropical storm watches have been posted for the central Bahamas and hurricane watches was issued for the northwest Bahamas.

If Jeanne remains on its forecast track, much of South Florida likely would see tropical force winds of 40 to 70 mph and heavy rain, or conditions similar to those of Frances. Northern Palm Beach County would face hurricane conditions, as it did with Frances.

Winds would start picking up on Saturday afternoon. Hurricane Jeanne's most powerful winds, greater than 74 mph, extend 45 miles from its core, and its tropical force winds, from 39 to 73 mph, extend 140 miles from its center.

"Assuming the track is accurate, it looks almost like a repeat of Frances," said meteorologist Rusty Pfost of the National Weather Service in Miami. "If it comes in farther south, it would be worse than Frances; we would get more like what Martin, St. Lucie and Palm Beach County got, which was hurricane force winds."

Another major danger, Pfost said, is storm surge flooding, particularly if Jeanne hits the Broward or Miami-Dade coastlines. In that case, he said, much of South Florida would be on the storm's north side, or its most vicious side.

If the system manages to make a turn north in time, South Florida could escape the storm's full fury, he said.

"We could have everything from not much at all to a bad hit," Pfost said. "We're just going to have to wind it up again, like we have been doing."

With the current track, hurricane watches or warnings could be posted for South Florida as early as Friday, and emergency managers would start ordering coastal evacuations. Emergency operations centers all along Florida's east coast went into high alert mode on Thursday, including those in Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties.

"Everyone's just a bit hurricane wary this year, but it appears we're going to have to watch and deal with it," said Tony Carper, Broward County's emergency management director.

State meteorologist, Ben Nelson, based in Tallahassee, said he fears the storm could hit South Florida and then churn north, damaging communities all along the state's east coast.

"Considering what we've already been through this year, it couldn't get much worse," he said.

A high-pressure ridge north of Jeanne has been keeping it on its westerly track. The ridge was forecast to slide to the east, which might allow Jeanne to squeeze north before it reaches South Florida, Brown said.

"We're fairly confident that will happened, but the question is when that will happen," he said.

Another possibility is that Jeanne will continue to crawl slowly, which would give the system more time to find a way around that high-pressure ridge, and more north.

However, Brown said by Friday, Jeanne's forward progress is expected to step up as its steering currents strengthen.

"Over the next day and a half, we expect the forward motion will increase," he said.

Jeanne's loop east of the Bahamas is reminiscent of Hurricane Betsy, which in September 1965 was initially aiming toward South Carolina, and then made a loop about 350 miles east of Jacksonville. From there, it aimed south and plowed through the central Bahamas and the Keys. But because it was a huge system, more than 600 miles in diameter, it slammed Miami and Fort Lauderdale, killing 75 people.

Since mid August of this year, three major hurricanes have posed serious threats to South Florida, including Charley, Frances and Ivan.

Further, this is the second time Jeanne has taken aim at South Florida, as it initially put this region in its cone of error last week. Over the weekend, as a tropical storm, Jeanne triggered severe flooding in Haiti, leaving more than 1,000 dead.

"We've been tremendously lucky down here," Carper said. "I hope we haven't drawn the short straw on this one"

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Ivan, the remnants of the killer Hurricane that pummeled Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Sept. 15, strengthened to 60 mph and was taking aim at the Texas-Louisiana border on Thursday morning. It was in the Gulf of Mexico, 85 miles southeast of Port Arthur, Texas.

Staff Writer Robert Nolin contributed to this report. Ken Kaye can be reached at kkaye@sun-sentinel.com

Copyright © 2004, South Florida Sun-Sentinel

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