Sept. 9, 2004
By MARTIN MERZER
Miami Herald

Photo: Buildings lay in ruins Wednesday, Sept. 8, 2004, following the passage of Hurricane Ivan over Grenada on Tuesday in this image made available from the British Royal Navy. The most powerful hurricane to hit the Caribbean in nearly a decade killed at least 12 people in Grenada, damaged 90 percent its homes and destroyed a prison that left criminals running loose, officials said Wednesday. (AP Photo/PA, Royal Navy)

Hurricane Ivan exploded into a top-line Category 5 storm this morning, hurricane forecasters said Florida -- including South Florida -- appeared in great danger, and the Florida Keys ordered the evacuation of tourists and residents of mobile homes.

Unbelievably, the state was imperiled by another major hurricane, and it was the strongest yet.

Already a killer storm that pulverized Grenada, Ivan developed 160 mph winds overnight as it curved toward Jamaica and Cuba.

Though Florida remained several days away and many things could change, computerized forecast models -- and the official long-term forecast -- brought the storm over the Florida Keys and South Florida on Monday. Local forecasters alerted the region to expect gusty winds and rainbands as early as Sunday.

''The spread is much less than it has been over the previous two to three days,'' said forecaster Stacy Stewart of the National Hurricane Center in West Miami-Dade County. ``Unfortunately, the model spread still brackets the Florida peninsula.''

And Ivan was extremely dangerous. It killed at least 12 people in Grenada and proved deadly in Tobago and Venezuela.

In the Keys, emergency managers ordered all tourists and all residents of mobile homes to leave the island chain. It apparently was the first stage of a possible mass evacuation likely to include an airlift of hospital patients out of the island chain.

With only one road leading to safety, officials said they would need at least 36 hours to get everyone out of the way of a Category 4 hurricane. The forecast track this morning looked increasingly discouraging for the Keys. A decision might come today.

''They're coming at us from every direction,'' Billy Wagner Sr., Monroe County's senior director of emergency management, said of this season's hurricanes.

Evacuations of varying degrees were ordered in the Keys in recent weeks for hurricanes Charley and Frances. Around the state, tens of thousands of people are still trying to recover from those natural disasters -- and now another seems to be on the way.

Three hurricanes have not pummeled Florida in the same year since 1964.

''It looks like we're going to have to go through the drill again,'' said Max Mayfield, the hurricane center's director. ``Would someone please turn off the hurricane switch?''

Ivan's ferocious eye blasted Grenada with winds so strong Tuesday they flattened concrete houses, including the home of Prime Minister Keith Mitchell. ''We are terribly devastated here in Grenada,'' Mitchell said in a radio broadcast. ``It's beyond any imagination.''

Ivan also damaged 221 homes in Barbados and left many residents without water and electricity, according to officials at the Caribbean disaster agency in Barbados. Other islands, such as St. Lucia, sustained less severe damage.

As the storm moved on, forecasters warned of flooding rains in Haiti and the Dominican Republic from Ivan's outlying but potent squalls. Hurricane watches and warnings were in place in portions of those countries and Venezuela and Columbia.

But the worst was still ahead -- the heavily populated islands of Jamaica and Cuba and the state of Florida.

Forecasters predicted that Ivan would strike Jamaica on Friday and Cuba on Sunday, passing over or close to Havana.

Though intensity is difficult to predict, in both cases Ivan was expected to have winds of about 155 mph at landfall in Jamaica and 145 mph at landfall in Cuba -- a strong Category 4 storm on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, capable of inflicting death and catastrophic damage.

The most recent forecast tracks suggested a path toward South Florida, but forecasters said it was too early to achieve any degree of precision.

''It's going to be too close for comfort,'' said forecaster Jack Beven.

That message was heard loud and clear. At a Holiday Inn near Miami International Airport, where many stranded travelers waited out Frances last week, this was displayed on an electric sign: ``IVAN GO AWAY''

Herald staff writers Jennifer Babson and Michael A.W. Ottey contributed to this report.

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