September 1, 2004
By Ken Kaye
Sun-Sentinel

Forecasters on Tuesday shifted the track for Hurricane Frances farther north, with a possible landfall near Daytona Beach on Saturday afternoon. That reduces but far from eliminates the threat to this region.

Officials stress the ferocious storm was to be about 700 miles southeast of Miami by this morning, in a position where it could easily strike. They ask South Floridians to remain highly vigilant.

"We are expecting it to make landfall as a major hurricane," said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami-Dade County. "Treat this with all the respect you can."

The problem, Mayfield said: Forecast models greatly diverge on how Frances will interact with a subtropical ridge of high pressure north of its path.

Some models say the ridge will weaken and allow the storm to turn north, toward the Carolinas. But others say it will remain strong, which could push Frances over the Broward County-Palm Beach County line as early as Friday morning, he said.

The margin of error is so slim that even if it closely follows its forecast track, the storm could draw within 100 miles of Palm Beach. For that reason, hurricane watches or warnings might be posted for South Florida as early as 5 p.m. today, Mayfield said.

As Frances drew nearer to the Bahamas, it was expected to fluctuate in intensity and could become a Category 5 storm with winds of 156 mph or higher, said Jamie Rhome, a meteorologist for the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

The hurricane could hit anywhere from South Florida to South Carolina as early as late Friday, he said.

``This still is a huge threat to the southeast U.S. coast,'' Rhome said. ``All indications for now is that Florida is the prime candidate.''

At 8 a.m. EDT Wednesday, Frances was centered about 130 miles east of Grand Turk Island, which is southeast of the Bahamas, and moving west-northwest near 16 mph. Winds were at 140 mph.

Frances was forecast to plow through the Bahamas on late Wednesday or Thursday before hitting the U.S. mainland, but large prediction errors mean that millions of coastal residents should be on guard, forecasters said.

``There's a tremendous amount of uncertainty,'' Rhome said. ``I don't think anyone's off the hook yet.''

Forecasters think Frances will make a gradual northwest turn because they expect a low-pressure system over the Bahamas to weaken the subtropical ridge of high pressure. But they don't know how soon that would happen -- and have struggled as a result to find a consistent future track.

On Monday, the forecast track aimed at the Carolinas, then shifted south to Vero Beach. On Tuesday, the track aimed at Jacksonville, then shifted south to Daytona Beach.

If the system actually makes that turn toward northeast Florida, it would be gradual, Mayfield said.

"You won't see a real dog leg to the right," he said.

Broward County Emergency Manager Tony Carper said a slight wobble from the forecast track could result in landfall here. He said if it stays on a track north, South Florida still might see heavy rains, strong winds and large waves because the storm's outer bands extend hundreds of miles from its center.

"I think we're still going to have a number of tense days ahead," he said. "This will be strong Category 4, maybe a Category 5, when it passes by, and it's playing Russian roulette with the storm if you don't have your guard up."

Craig Fugate, Florida's emergency management director, again reminded residents that Hurricane Charley proved a forecast track can't be completely trusted. It was initially forecast to hit Tampa but made an unexpected turn into Punta Gorda on Aug. 13.

"Charley taught us that good as the science is, it's not that good. It's not perfect," he said. "We're telling people to prepare, stay aware and monitor progress of the storm."

Local governments and agencies were taking no chances. Fearing heavy rains, the South Florida Water Management District was prepared to activate pumps to lower canal levels and avoid flooding.

Palm Beach County officials will meet this morning to decide whether shelters will open, said Beth Ingold-Love, director of public affairs for Palm Beach County, and school officials plan to announce on Thursday whether schools will be closed on Friday.

Palm Beach County Fire Rescue officials said they canceled vacation for firefighters, as of Friday, until further notice. Also, fire stations crews will be doubled by Saturday, said Capt. Don DeLucia.

Broward County will decide today whether to activate its emergency operations center and possibly set in motion plans to open shelters and order evacuations.

Palm Beach County Emergency Management Director Bill O'Brien said he was happy residents were stocking up on supplies on Tuesday.

"We've just seen what can happen across the state, and I think it did get people's attention," O'Brien said.

Eight named storms formed in August, breaking the previous record of seven named storms for the month, set in August of 1933 and 1995. It tied the record for the most named storms ever in a month -- eight formed in September 2002.

Orlando Sentinel Staff Writer Maya Bell and Staff Writers Nancy L. Othón, Lynette Norris and Lois Solomon contributed to this report.

Ken Kaye can be reached at kkaye@sun-sentinel.com or 954-385-7911.

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