Apr. 30, 2004
Shaun McKinnon
The Arizona Republic

Photo: A flotilla of houseboats sits on a depleted Lake Powell. The lake is at its lowest level in 30 years.

Alarmed by disastrous drought conditions, the federal government is prepared to impose water restrictions along the Colorado River if Arizona and the other states that use it don't come up with a plan of their own.

Officials won't say what form those restrictions might take, but when California failed to settle a dispute at the end of 2002, the Interior Department slashed the water supply to millions of people in Los Angeles and San Diego and cut the allocation to farmers in the Imperial Valley.

Without an alternative plan, existing laws could trigger measures by 2007 that two or three years ago seemed unthinkable: Arizona could lose one-third or more of the water that supplies Phoenix and Tucson. Farmers could be forced to leave fallow thousands of acres of cropland. Upper-basin states could face the choice of releasing water to down-river states or flouting the law to keep their own taps flowing.

A top Interior official downplays what some have seen as threats to intervene, but he says the department is serious about averting a full-scale crisis on the West's most important water source. The situation turned more urgent after an unexpected loss of snow runoff into the river this year.

"We've made it very clear that the drought is real and that if it continues on the trend that we've seen over the last five years, there will be very serious issues that will need to be addressed," Assistant Interior Secretary Bennett Raley said.

"We prefer . . . in fact our first, second and third alternatives are that the states work out solutions that are acceptable to the government. But the department might have to do something if the states can't take action."

The states insist they are making progress on a plan aimed at averting shortages and don't intend to let the government take over. Representatives of the seven states have met several times and believe they can move quickly now.

Fresh in their memories is what happened in 2002, when Interior Secretary Gale Norton shut off California's access to billions of gallons of water and briefly reduced the allocation of produce growers.

"People ask why we don't already have a plan," said Sid Wilson, general manager of the Central Arizona Project, which carries Colorado River to Phoenix and other cities. "Well, all the information the states have relied on is based on about 100 years of record, and now we're in a drought more severe than anything in those 100 years would indicate. We always thought we wouldn't have to worry about a shortage for 20 or 30 years. It's a whole new ballgame."

The Colorado River, which supplies water to more than 25 million people in seven states, is in its fifth consecutive year of drought. This year it will deliver barely half of the water it usually does to Lake Powell, a key reservoir that now sits at its lowest level in more than 30 years.

Hydrologists say that if the drought persists and runoff into the Colorado continues at such low levels, Lake Powell could virtually dry up by the end of 2007. That would pit the seven states against each other in a bitter water war.

Raley said any plan must fit within the existing law of the river, but that doesn't mean states can't look for new ideas.

"They have more flexibility now than they will in another two or three years," he said. "That's why we're so insistent that work begin in seriousness now. A day lost now is a day that may be essential to putting in place a long-range solution."

The past five years now rank as the five driest consecutive years in at least a century, according to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. A freakish warm streak in March devastated the high-country snowpack, ending hope that what had been a decent winter might buy the seven states a little more time.

"March was a real downer this year," bureau hydrologist Paul Davidson said. "We should have received a big part of our snowpack then, but now that's missing, and to make it up is impossible."

In Utah, snowpack sat at 106 percent of normal on March 1 and had plunged to 65 percent of normal just 31 days later.

"It just disappeared, it melted, went into the ground," said Larry Anderson, director of the state's Division of Water Resources. "That's not going to get to any of the storage reservoirs."

Denver residents face strict water cutbacks again this year, with limits on outdoor watering. In Las Vegas, tough water rules took effect Jan. 1 and will continue indefinitely.

Lake Powell and Lake Mead will supply the seven states with all of the water they need this year and probably the next two years with no trouble.

After that, Nevada and California would probably feel the pinch first. If Lake Mead, which sits at barely half of its capacity, continues to drop, those two states will lose access to the extra water they have been allowed to take in recent years.

If the Colorado River and the reservoirs can't meet the needs of all seven states, Norton could declare a shortage. In that case, Arizona's CAP allocation would be cut, perhaps by one-third or more, until California and Nevada were guaranteed their full shares.

The upper-basin states - Colorado, Utah, Wyoming and New Mexico - face some tough decisions if Lake Powell drops too low. Under the seven-state river compact, the four upper-basin states must supply Arizona, Nevada and California with a set amount of water each year. Lake Powell helps them meet that requirement. But if it continues to drain, those upper-basin states might be forced to give up some of their own allocation.

The CAP's Wilson said the states are trying to avoid those situations. Ideas discussed include shifting water from farms to cities, perhaps by paying growers to fallow land for a season or two, and reducing the water lost to inefficiency.

Arizona also strongly supports the operation of the Yuma desalting plant, which could allow the government to leave up to 100,000 acre-feet in Lake Mead each year. An acre-foot is about 326,000 gallons.

"All of the ready solutions create a Pandora's box of complications," he said. "It won't be easy, and it won't be clean, but I'm confident that we'll ultimately work something out. We don't have any choice."

The plan is expected to include ideas for drought recovery, as well. Hydrologists estimate that even if the drought ended this year and the region began receiving normal amounts of rain and snow, it would take 15 to 20 years to refill Mead and Powell.

Both state and federal officials agree on at least one point: The two giant reservoirs have protected the West against much more serious consequences.

"It took the drawdown of the reservoirs to catch our attention, but it's because of them that we don't have more-serious problems," said Dennis Underwood, vice president of the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California.

"There are some real challenges, but I think we're up to it."

http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/0430drought.html