April 22, 2004
By Amanda Brown, Environment Correspondent, PA News

Another two million UK properties are being placed at increased risk of flooding because of global warming, it is claimed today.

A government-backed scientific report highlights decisions that might be needed to protect people, homes, businesses and the environment. It aims to identify more accurately the long-term flood risks to cities, towns and coastal communities.

The initiative, supported by the Department for Trade and Industry and the Department for the Environment Food and Rural Affairs, is led by Sir David King, the Government's Chief Scientific Adviser.

He has been working with a Think Tank on "blue skies" research into possible flooding scenarios for the UK depending on different climatic conditions.

The Foresight Future Flooding report looks 30 to 100 years ahead and outlines the possible risks for the UK from heavy rains and coastal erosion.

The Government has increased spending on coastal defences since 2000 with the current level now at £500 million per annum.

Scientists warn that fossil fuel burning worldwide is overheating the atmosphere and leading to disastrous climate change with more storms, floods, droughts and heatwaves.

The UK government is on course to meet its pledge of meeting a 12.5% cut in greenhouse gas emissions and is working towards a 20% domestic cut in emissions by 2010.

John Parker, head of General Insurance at the Association of British Insurers said: "In the face of the continuing flood risk, insurers remain committed to providing flood cover to as many of this country's two million flood vulnerable homeowners as possible.

"While the Government has a significant flood management programme in place, in some areas the flood risk remains substantial.

"Increased Government spending on flood defences in recent years needs to be sustained to ensure that flood insurance continues to be widely available."

The Government's chief scientific adviser, Sir David King, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "Even today we have nearly two million properties in flood plains ... that are at risk of flooding.

"And what we are looking at is a scenario out to 2080 in which this number of people does significantly increase.

"If we just continue with current policies in place, we are talking about increasing the risks from roughly 1.6 million today to up to 3.6 million by the 2080s, so quite a substantial increase in the number of properties at risk."

He continued: "Defra already has a substantial flood and coastal defence project. But we are saying the investment in that project will need to be increased over the next 20 years from something like £500 million per annum today to up to close to £1 billion per annum."

The report outlines a range of scenarios which depend on factors such as climate change, GDP growth, economic development and government structure.

In each case, if flood management policies remain unchanged, the risk of flooding increases significantly and the damage could be very costly.

Under the most extreme scenario, the annual cost of damages could increase 20-fold from the current level.

But the report says that the extra cost of flood damage could be cut:

• by up to 25% if carbon dioxide emissions are reduced;
  
  
• if new building in high flood risk areas is carefully managed;
  
  
• if an integrated programme of engineering projects and other actions to limit flood damage are carried out.
  
  The project found that over the next 100 years, if current levels of spending and approaches to flood management remain unchanged:
  
  
• river and coastal flood risk could increase between two and 20 times;
  
  
• risk of flooding from rainfall could increase between three and six times;
  
  
• annual economic damage could increase from £1 billion to between £1.5 billion and £21 billion by the 2080s, depending on the scenario. This compares with growth of GDP of between two and 14 times over the same period;
  
  
• the number of people at high risk of river and coastal flooding could increase from 1.6 million today, to between 2.3 and 3.6 million by the 2080s.
  

Maintaining the current level of flood risk could cost between £20 billion and £80 billion in total over the next 80 years, but a steady increase in investment starting now could make future flood management more affordable.

An annual increase of £10 million to £30 milion per year for the next 80 years would be needed.

The effectiveness of drains and sewers in towns and cities could be particularly affected by climate change and increased flooding but this is an area that needs more research.

Environment Minister Elliot Morley said: "Managing future flood risk, including the latest climate change predictions, is a challenge Defra is addressing as it works on its new Strategy for Flood and Coastal Protection.

"Foresight's important predictive insights mean that part of Defra's work is already done. The report's conclusions will be incorporated into the draft strategy, to be published for consultation later this year.

"Government spending on flood and coastal defence has risen significantly in the last three years and the UK is firmly committed to combating climate change.

"But this very useful 'what if?' report underlines the need for the Government's flood management programme to keep evolving to face up to new potential risks and challenges."

http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/environment/story.jsp?story=514072