Earthquake Forecast: Hold on Tight

Team of scientists predicts a big one will hit this year — and they’ve been right before

February 16, 2004
By Benjamin Spillman
The Desert Sun

Gardner, 39, is an off-road tour guide whose typical route bounces directly on top of the San Andreas Fault north of Interstate 10 in the Coachella Valley.

He says the famous fault is a great stop for tourists trying to comprehend the enormous forces responsible for the desert’s unique topography.

"That is what they call the most geologically tortured terrain on the planet," says Gardner as the 4X4 bumps toward a canyon formed by ridges jutting upward from the fault. "It is hard to make any rhyme or reason of it."

But thanks to a Russian professor who Gardner, or most anyone who’s not a seismologist, has never heard of, there’s fresh interest in predicting the behavior of one of the desert’s oldest features.

That’s because UCLA seismologist and mathematical geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok is predicting a magnitude 6.4 or greater earthquake by Sept. 5 somewhere in the desert between Mexico and Barstow.

The groundbreaking prediction is significant because it is the latest in a string of generally accurate earthquake predictions issued by Keilis-Borok and his team.

The team’s most recent success was tied to the 6.5-magnitude San Simeon earthquake that occurred Dec. 22. The location and date of the quake fell within a 310-mile swath of Central California and nine-month window they identified.

Now the world of seismology, which is still skeptical of earthquake predictions, is awaiting the outcome of the UCLA team’s desert forecast.

"Good old K. B. seems to have done it," Lucy Jones, scientist in charge at the U.S. Geological Survey’s Southern California office, said of the 82-year-old Keilis-Borok, who has worked on earthquake predictions for more than two decades. "If he gets this one right, I think there will be a strong feeling that it goes beyond random luck."

Beyond San Simeon, the Keilis-Borok team predicted there would be a magnitude 7 or greater earthquake in Japan between July and December last year. A magnitude 8.1 earthquake struck Hokkaido Sept. 25.

Closer to home, the Northridge earthquake of 1994 struck 21 days after an 18-month window when the team said a magnitude 6.6 or greater quake would strike within 120 miles from the 1992 Landers earthquake.

The 7.1-magnitude Loma Prieta earthquake that disrupted the 1989 World Series fell within a five-year window the team identified in 1986, according to UCLA.

The group recently submitted an explanation of its methods to the journal Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors.

"It is not like predicting tornadoes in Kansas," said John Vidale, interim director of UCLA’s Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics. "We really have to take a look at this."

The method involves studying past behavior of the Earth’s crust and using the data to predict future activity.

Basically, the team watches faults and bases predictions on how closely small quakes are clustered in time and distance.

Keilis-Borok isn’t talking about his work right now because he wants it to appear in another journal that discourages researchers from speaking to the press before publication of a scientific article.

But in a UCLA-sponsored report on the research Keilis-Borok called prediction, "the Holy Grail of earthquake science."

He also said, "This discovery was not generated by an instant inspiration, but culminates 20 years of multinational, interdisciplinary collaboration by a team of scientists from Russia, the United States, Western Europe, Japan and Canada."

Carol Camelot of Palm Desert predicted the research results would jar apathetic Coachella Valley residents into preparing for a possible disaster.

"I think people are fearful, that leads to denial," said Camelot, a disaster preparedness trainer. "Unfortunately, that doesn’t make it go away."

A concrete prediction, even if it covers hundreds of miles, could convince locals to make preparations, Camelot said.

She suggested stocking a few days worth of food and water at home and keeping blankets and other supplies in cars, among other precautions.

"You just don’t know what systems will break down as a result of the earthquake," she said. "Will it be the telephone, will it be the water lines breaking underground, is it the power lines? We don’t know."

Jones said that even if the new research represents progress in earthquake prediction, it may be of limited benefit to average people.

She said building code enforcement and preparation are more crucial for safety.

"Would you rather have two hours to get out of a building or a building that doesn’t fall down in the first place," she asked.

Gardner, who will celebrate his 40th birthday Sept. 5, the last day of the Kreilis-Borok prediction window, said he’s not worried about a quake.

"I celebrate my birthday out of town," he said.


TIPS
Risk management consultants EQE International offer some advice on what to do after an earthquake.

Stay off the roads: Do not attempt to drive anywhere. Roads may be damaged or blocked by debris. Freeway overpasses may be down. Use will be restricted to emergency vehicles only.

Get ready for aftershocks: Plan for strong aftershocks. Stay out of already weakened and damaged homes.

Protect yourself: Wear shoes to protect your feet from broken glass and debris.

Shut off utilities: Do not take unnecessary risks. If you notice any threatening damage, turn off the gas, electricity and water. Do not turn them back on until each has been properly inspected.

Electricity dangers: Do not touch downed power lines or objects in contact with power lines.

Phones may be out: Do not expect the telephone to work. Do not try to use the telephone unless it is an extreme emergency.

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