Gray Predicts Above-Average Hurricane Season
Forecast Calls For 12 Named Atlantic Tropical Storms In 2003

April 4, 2003

FORT COLLINS, Colo. -- Colorado State University tropical storm researcher William Gray and his research team are forecasting above-average Atlantic basin hurricane activity in 2003.

In the first report of 2003, the team calls for twice as many hurricanes as in 2002.

"A wide variety of global indicators obtained and analyzed through March continue to point to 2003 being an active Atlantic hurricane season," said Gray, now in his 20th year of hurricane forecasting.


"We expect Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity to be about 140 percent of average this year."

The forecast calls for 12 named tropical storms to form in the Atlantic basin between June 1 and Nov. 30. Of these, eight are predicted to become hurricanes and three are anticipated to evolve into intense hurricanes -- with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.

The long-term average is 9.6 tropical storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes per year. 2002 witnessed 12 named storms but only four hurricanes and two intense hurricanes.

Gray and his team believe that the El Nino in the Pacific, which played a role in suppressing 2002 hurricane activity, is weakening and will be largely dissipated by summer.

The team also maintains their warning for higher than average probability of at least one intense hurricane making landfall in the United States in 2003, citing a 68 percent chance of a major hurricane hitting somewhere along the U.S. coastline.

"The United States has been extremely lucky over the past few decades, but climatology will eventually right itself and we must expect a great increase in land-falling intense hurricanes," said Gray. "With such large coastal population growth in recent decades, it is inevitable that we will see hurricane-spawned destruction in coming years on a scale many times greater than what we have seen in the past."

The team will issue seasonal forecast updates on May 30, Aug. 7 and Sep. 3.

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